{ "personId": "kenneth-arrow", "uid": "SL-0138", "name": "肯尼斯·阿罗", "version": "V2研究贡献账", "updatedAt": "2026-09-15", "formula": { "q": "Q = 10^(M/2) − 1", "light": "Lᵢ = aᵢ × Qᵢ", "total": "L = Σ Lᵢ", "score": "S = 2 × log₁₀(1 + L)" }, "scopeNote": "本轮当前已列9项有限研究账；M与归功份额为可修订判断。未覆盖内容和未核清的负面作用不按零处理，具体缺口见逐项说明。", "exclusions": [ { "id": "arrow-gap-1", "title": "晚年气候、代际福利与可持续性工作", "reason": "尚未核明独立模型、报告终态、共同作者和交付边界，不能仅按公共参与或头衔归入。" }, { "id": "arrow-gap-2", "title": "具体教学、咨询和公共服务交付", "reason": "目前没有可定位课程、咨询成果或组织措施；学生和机构的后续成就不自动归入。" }, { "id": "arrow-gap-3", "title": "实际选举、市场、金融、库存和医疗政策后果", "reason": "九项均为条件性理论或方法成果；具体制度的实施、效果和伤害需要独立证据。" }, { "id": "arrow-gap-4", "title": "医疗临床、病例和个人健康资料", "reason": "医疗项严格限于公开经济理论与制度知识，不读取或使用病例、治疗或个人健康资料。" }, { "id": "arrow-gap-5", "title": "均衡、风险与信息研究的后继扩展", "reason": "McKenzie、Pratt、Scarf及后继机制设计、动态规划、经验研究具有独立增量，不能由阿罗原始成果吞并。" } ], "items": [ { "id": "OUT-SL0138-1950-1963-SOCIAL-CHOICE-IMPOSSIBILITY", "title": "社会偏好聚合的不可能性框架", "year": "1950–1963", "summary": "把个人偏好排序、社会福利函数和一组规范条件形式化，证明在至少三个选项下这些条件一般不能由非独裁的社会排序规则同时满足。", "mReason": "该成果给出跨经济、政治与群体决策持续复用的形式边界，能改变制度问题的提问方式，取M6.6。条件依赖性与对实际制度的非处方性质限制上档，不因名望或奖项调整。", "aReason": "Arrow 0.46；投票与福利理论前史0.26；讨论审阅共同体0.09；Cowles机构0.07；未解析0.12。", "sources": [ { "label": "Cowles：Social Choice and Individual Values", "url": "https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/2022-09/m12-all.pdf" }, { "label": "Cowles：Kenneth J. Arrow书目", "url": "https://cowles.yale.edu/publications/author/Kenneth%20J.%20Arrow" }, { "label": "斯坦福哲学百科：阿罗定理", "url": "https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/arrows-theorem/index.html" } ], "missing": "需逐章核对1951与1963版公理表述和证明修订。；需把Black等同时代独立成果与直接前驱输入进一步分开。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1950论文、1951《Social Choice and Individual Values》及1963第二版中，以个人弱排序为输入，在非独裁、广域、帕累托/公民主权、无关选项独立等条件下证明社会排序聚合的不可能性。只计条件化的形式框架与定理；不把所有投票制度、民主实践或后继机制设计归阿罗。", "M": "6.6", "budget": [ { "actor": "肯尼斯·阿罗", "actorId": "SL-0138", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.46" }, { "actor": "投票悖论、社会福利与集体选择理论前驱", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::VOTING-PARADOX-WELFARE-ECONOMICS-AND-COLLECTIVE-CHOICE-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.26" }, { "actor": "Cowles社会选择讨论、审阅与形式校正共同体", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::COWLES-SOCIAL-CHOICE-DISCUSSION-AND-REVIEW-COMMUNITY", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.09" }, { "actor": "Cowles委员会与耶鲁Cowles基金会", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::COWLES-COMMISSION-AND-YALE-COWLES-FOUNDATION", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.07" }, { "actor": "社会选择版本、导师反馈与技术输入待核池", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::UNRESOLVED-SOCIAL-CHOICE-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.12" } ], "share": "0.46", "exactLight": "917.3606648856846166221294825001863566736861850864592056457602868222682189211025236586748367068660062", "light": "917.360665", "standaloneScore": "5.93", "lightSharePercent": "32.4205" }, { "id": "OUT-SL0138-1954-COMPETITIVE-GENERAL-EQUILIBRIUM-EXISTENCE", "title": "生产、交换与消费一体模型的竞争均衡存在性证明", "year": "1954", "summary": "阿罗与Gérard Debreu在明确偏好、技术与凸性等假设下，为包含生产、交换和消费的竞争经济证明均衡存在。", "mReason": "该成果为复杂市场相容性提供长期复用的统一存在性框架，取M6.7。抽象假设和非经验预测边界进入范围判断，避免把整个市场经济后果回灌。", "aReason": "Arrow和Debreu各0.24；均衡、不动点与博弈前史0.25；Cowles共同体0.09；机构0.07；未解析0.11。", "sources": [ { "label": "Arrow—Debreu：竞争均衡存在性论文", "url": "https://web.stanford.edu/class/msande311/arrow-debreu.pdf" }, { "label": "JSTOR：Arrow—Debreu论文记录", "url": "https://www.jstor.org/stable/1907353" }, { "label": "诺贝尔奖：1972年经济学奖说明", "url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1972/summary/" } ], "missing": "需作者通信或档案校准Arrow与Debreu的逐项证明分工。；需独立回顾明确与McKenzie并行证明及Debreu早期社会均衡定理的边界。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1954年Arrow与Debreu对包含生产、交换和消费的竞争经济，在明确偏好、技术和凸性等假设下证明均衡存在。只计存在性和抽象经济证明框架；均衡稳定、计算、唯一性、经验真实性和所有宏观政策排除。", "M": "6.7", "budget": [ { "actor": "肯尼斯·阿罗", "actorId": "SL-0138", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.24" }, { "actor": "Gérard Debreu（一般均衡存在性证明共同作者）", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:GERARD-DEBREU", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.24" }, { "actor": "Walras、Cassel、Wald、博弈与不动点方法前驱", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::WALRAS-CASSEL-WALD-GAME-THEORY-AND-FIXED-POINT-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.25" }, { "actor": "Cowles数理经济学共同体", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::COWLES-MATHEMATICAL-ECONOMICS-COMMUNITY", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.09" }, { "actor": "Cowles委员会与斯坦福大学", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::COWLES-COMMISSION-AND-STANFORD-UNIVERSITY", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.07" }, { "actor": "Arrow—Debreu证明分工与数学输入待核池", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::UNRESOLVED-ARROW-DEBREU-PROOF-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.11" } ], "share": "0.24", "exactLight": "537.0530732564015068691882045917781600897427354441128467356847761496123040587234343441874286778226648", "light": "537.053073", "standaloneScore": "5.46", "lightSharePercent": "18.9801" }, { "id": "OUT-SL0138-1962-INFORMATION-INVENTION-MARKET-ALLOCATION", "title": "信息商品特性与发明资源配置的福利分析", "year": "1962", "summary": "分析信息在产生前难定价、产生后复制成本低且难完全排他，说明这些特性为何会使市场对发明投入不足。", "mReason": "该成果识别了知识生产中普遍存在、可跨产业复用的资源配置机制，取M5.7。它是规范分析而非任何专利或补贴方案的效果证明。", "aReason": "Arrow 0.42；公共品、专利与福利理论前史0.25；NBER会议共同体0.12；机构0.09；未解析0.12。", "sources": [ { "label": "NBER：发明资源配置章节页", "url": "https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/rate-and-direction-inventive-activity-economic-and-social-factors/economic-welfare-and-allocation-resources-invention" }, { "label": "NBER：发明资源配置章节PDF", "url": "https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c2144/c2144.pdf" } ], "missing": "需逐页核对其对专利、垄断、政府与基础研究的条件性判断。；需与Nelson等同期创新经济学工作做直接传递而非同史出现的区分。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1962年《Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention》中，对发明的不确定性、信息传播/占有困难和市场激励不足进行福利分析。只计通用信息—创新配置框架；具体专利政策、R&D机构、互联网信息或后继信息经济学全部成果排除。", "M": "5.7", "budget": [ { "actor": "肯尼斯·阿罗", "actorId": "SL-0138", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.42" }, { "actor": "公共品、福利、不确定性与专利理论前驱", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::PUBLIC-GOODS-WELFARE-UNCERTAINTY-AND-PATENT-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.25" }, { "actor": "NBER发明研究会议编辑与讨论者", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::NBER-INVENTION-CONFERENCE-EDITORS-AND-DISCUSSANTS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.12" }, { "actor": "NBER、SSRC与普林斯顿大学出版社", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::NBER-SSRC-AND-PRINCETON-UNIVERSITY-PRESS", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.09" }, { "actor": "发明信息论文的讨论、案例与概念输入待核池", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::UNRESOLVED-INVENTION-INFORMATION-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.12" } ], "share": "0.42", "exactLight": "296.9172294413379225369302757195113379288618455315454461574068785425700095863022855104622122163974055", "light": "296.917229", "standaloneScore": "4.95", "lightSharePercent": "10.4934" }, { "id": "OUT-SL0138-1963-MEDICAL-CARE-UNCERTAINTY-INSTITUTIONS", "title": "医疗服务不确定性、信任制度与市场边界的福利分析", "year": "1963", "summary": "对医疗服务制度作公开经济理论分析，说明疾病与治疗不确定性、专业知识差异如何关联保险、信任、职业规范与市场边界；不包含临床建议。", "mReason": "该成果把通用经济理论与医疗制度的特殊不确定性连接成独立、长期复用的分析框架，取M5.8。范围严格限于公开理论/制度知识，符合当前非临床边界；证据不支持任何治疗或政策成效。", "aReason": "Arrow 0.35；福利、保险与医疗市场前史0.20；医疗制度知识共同体0.15；原文具名评论者0.10；机构0.08；未解析0.12。", "sources": [ { "label": "Arrow：Uncertainty and the Welfare Economics of Medical Care", "url": "https://casbs.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/media/file/kenneth-arrow-medical-care.pdf" }, { "label": "PMC：医疗经济学论文再刊记录", "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2585909/" } ], "missing": "需全文逐节核对保险、专业规范与许可制度的条件性结论。；需医疗经济学回顾区分其概念影响与后继实证、政策研究的独立增量。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1963年公开论文对医疗服务业而非个人健康或治疗方案进行规范经济分析，说明疾病发生、诊断/治疗效果和专业知识的不确定性如何对应保险、信息不对称、信任、执照与非市场规范。只计公开理论和制度知识，不涉及病例、临床资料或治疗建议。", "M": "5.8", "budget": [ { "actor": "肯尼斯·阿罗", "actorId": "SL-0138", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.35" }, { "actor": "福利经济学、保险、不确定性与医疗市场前驱", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::WELFARE-ECONOMICS-INSURANCE-UNCERTAINTY-AND-MEDICAL-MARKET-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.2" }, { "actor": "医疗执业、保险、医院与公共卫生制度知识共同体", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::MEDICAL-PRACTICE-INSURANCE-HOSPITAL-AND-PUBLIC-HEALTH-KNOWLEDGE-COMMUNITY", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.15" }, { "actor": "Bator、Dorfman、Fuchs、Gilson、Kessel、Mushkin、Rorem等论文评论者", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::BATOR-DORFMAN-FUCHS-GILSON-KESSEL-MUSHKIN-ROREM-COMMENTERS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.1" }, { "actor": "福特基金会与斯坦福大学（项目支持）", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::FORD-FOUNDATION-AND-STANFORD-UNIVERSITY", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.08" }, { "actor": "医疗经济学制度事实、评论与经验输入待核池", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::UNRESOLVED-MEDICAL-ECONOMICS-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.12" } ], "share": "0.35", "exactLight": "277.6648821534985257230713989927357764061362211144195162323133752609344940170206381239833381465165973", "light": "277.664882", "standaloneScore": "4.89", "lightSharePercent": "9.8130" }, { "id": "OUT-SL0138-1952-1965-SECURITIES-RISK-ALLOCATION-AND-RISK-AVERSION", "title": "状态证券、风险配置与风险厌恶的理论框架", "year": "1952–1965", "summary": "以状态证券说明在特定假设下如何配置风险，并发展随财富变化分析风险厌恶的理论语言；不推断现实金融市场必然有效。", "mReason": "该成果为跨状态风险配置提供通用、可复用的理论结构，取M5.6。与1954确定性/一体化均衡存在点按‘不确定性和风险配置增量’分边，不能两次领取共同均衡基线。", "aReason": "Arrow 0.40；期望效用、保险和均衡前史0.30；会议共同体0.10；机构0.07；未解析0.13。", "sources": [ { "label": "Arrow：风险承担理论版本", "url": "https://www.sfu.ca/~kkasa/Arrow_64.pdf" }, { "label": "Google Books：Aspects of the Theory of Risk-Bearing", "url": "https://books.google.com/books/about/Aspects_of_the_theory_of_risk_bearing.html?id=yprCAAAAIAAJ" }, { "label": "芝加哥大学图书馆：Arrow书目", "url": "https://www.lib.uchicago.edu/research/help/bibliographies/nobels/arrow/" } ], "missing": "需核读1965文本并与Pratt同时期风险厌恶测度严格分边。；需区分状态证券原始证明与后来Arrow–Debreu不确定性模型的重叠。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1952报告、1953法文发表及1964英文版本的状态证券最优风险配置，与1965《Aspects of the Theory of Risk-Bearing》中风险厌恶框架合为一族。只计不确定性下证券/偏好的一般理论；Pratt独立结果、实际金融市场表现、衍生品与全部保险产品排除。", "M": "5.6", "budget": [ { "actor": "肯尼斯·阿罗", "actorId": "SL-0138", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.4" }, { "actor": "期望效用、保险、投资组合与一般均衡前驱", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::EXPECTED-UTILITY-INSURANCE-PORTFOLIO-AND-GENERAL-EQUILIBRIUM-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.3" }, { "actor": "巴黎风险计量讨论会与风险理论共同体", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::PARIS-RISK-COLLOQUIUM-AND-RISK-THEORY-COMMUNITY", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.1" }, { "actor": "CNRS、斯坦福与赫尔辛基的会议、研究和出版支持", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::CNRS-STANFORD-AND-HELSINKI-INSTITUTIONAL-SUPPORT", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.07" }, { "actor": "风险理论版本、Arrow—Pratt边界与反馈待核池", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::UNRESOLVED-RISK-THEORY-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.13" } ], "share": "0.4", "exactLight": "251.9829377920772997737440546489375458691781028752914898110918115333979773190747230291656270974609060", "light": "251.982938", "standaloneScore": "4.81", "lightSharePercent": "8.9054" }, { "id": "OUT-SL0138-1962-LEARNING-BY-DOING-ENDOGENOUS-TECHNICAL-CHANGE", "title": "做中学驱动内生技术进步的增长模型", "year": "1962", "summary": "把生产和投资经验形成的知识写入增长模型，分析学习外溢如何使私人投资与社会学习收益出现差异。", "mReason": "该成果把经验性学习曲线提升为可分析的增长机制，跨生产率和创新政策具有复用价值，取M5.4。模型的简化经验代理和后继理论独立贡献限制上档。", "aReason": "Arrow 0.43；学习曲线与增长核算前史0.28；经验共同体0.09；机构0.07；未解析0.13。", "sources": [ { "label": "Arrow：Learning by Doing原文", "url": "https://www.haverford.edu/sites/default/files/Arrow1962.pdf" }, { "label": "RePEc：Learning by Doing论文记录", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/restud/v29y1962i3p155-173..html" } ], "missing": "需逐段确认模型对资本存量、经验和知识外溢的精确限制。；后继内生增长采用与Alchian等经验前史的独立份额需专题回顾。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1962年把知识增长设为生产/投资经验的副产品，并分析其对长期增长和资源配置的含义。只计这一内生学习机制；后来的内生增长、企业学习曲线、全部生产率增长和政策效果排除。", "M": "5.4", "budget": [ { "actor": "肯尼斯·阿罗", "actorId": "SL-0138", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.43" }, { "actor": "学习曲线、航空制造经验与增长核算前驱", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::LEARNING-CURVE-AIRFRAME-EXPERIENCE-AND-GROWTH-ACCOUNTING-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.28" }, { "actor": "产业学习经验研究共同体", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::INDUSTRIAL-LEARNING-EMPIRICAL-COMMUNITY", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.09" }, { "actor": "斯坦福大学（研究与发表支持）", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::STANFORD-UNIVERSITY", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.07" }, { "actor": "做中学模型的经验输入与反馈待核池", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::UNRESOLVED-LEARNING-BY-DOING-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.13" } ], "share": "0.43", "exactLight": "215.0805104597270825506683003605266802660029556281122834897699060322748399461971962527013320057010903", "light": "215.080510", "standaloneScore": "4.67", "lightSharePercent": "7.6012" }, { "id": "OUT-SL0138-1951-STOCHASTIC-DYNAMIC-INVENTORY", "title": "随机动态库存的双阈值政策分析", "year": "1951", "summary": "阿罗、Theodore Harris和Jacob Marschak把跨期库存与随机需求结合，在预设(s,S)政策类内分析参数与折现成本；不领取Scarf后来的更广最优性证明。", "mReason": "M5.5反映随机需求与固定调整成本下广泛复用的库存决策方法。原作者明确仅在预设政策族内最优，故不领取普遍最优性证明；独立增量是库存随机过程及策略参数，而非再次领取一般递归决策。", "aReason": "SL-0138 0.24：与Marschak组织随机跨期库存问题；EXT-NAME:JACOB-MARSCHAK 0.24：共同问题构造与库存模型；EXT-NAME:THEODORE-HARRIS 0.27：库存随机过程分布与折现成本分析；ARROW::INVENTORY-AND-CONSUMED-SEQUENTIAL-METHODS 0.13：已有库存理论及递归方法输入；ARROW::RAND-COWLES-RESEARCH-CONTEXT 0.05：RAND与Cowles研究协作；ARROW::LOGISTICS-BIBLIOGRAPHY-INPUT 0.03：库存研究文献及物流问题支持；ARROW::UNRESOLVED-1951-ROLES 0.04：原始研究记录未完整保存", "sources": [ { "label": "INFORMS：Arrow库存研究回顾", "url": "https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/epdf/10.1287/opre.50.1.1.17785" }, { "label": "AEA：库存理论与方法文章", "url": "https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.24.1.183" }, { "label": "东京大学：Arrow–Harris–Marschak库存论文PDF", "url": "https://www.or.mist.i.u-tokyo.ac.jp/takeda/FreshmanCourse/ArrowHarrisMarschak.pdf" } ], "missing": "1951论文的全部技术假设与现代应用范围尚需逐项复核。；Arrow自述为多年后回忆，明确缺原始记录，细分归功仍有不确定性。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1951年Arrow、Harris、Marschak把跨期库存与随机需求结合，在预设(s,S)政策类内求参数及折现成本。确定性双阈值形式先在；不把1960年Scarf对更广政策最优性的证明归入，也不领取所有现代供应链优化。", "M": "5.5", "budget": [ { "actor": "肯尼斯·阿罗", "actorId": "SL-0138", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.24" }, { "actor": "Jacob Marschak（随机库存问题共同构造者）", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:JACOB-MARSCHAK", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.24" }, { "actor": "Theodore Harris（随机库存过程与成本分析共同作者）", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:THEODORE-HARRIS", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.27" }, { "actor": "库存理论与已消费的序贯方法输入", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::ARROW::INVENTORY-AND-CONSUMED-SEQUENTIAL-METHODS", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.13" }, { "actor": "RAND与Cowles研究协作环境", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::ARROW::RAND-COWLES-RESEARCH-CONTEXT", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.05" }, { "actor": "库存研究文献与物流问题输入", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::ARROW::LOGISTICS-BIBLIOGRAPHY-INPUT", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.03" }, { "actor": "1951年原始研究记录与分工待核池", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::ARROW::UNRESOLVED-1951-ROLES", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.04" } ], "share": "0.24", "exactLight": "134.7219180456837792947882495463554955523802503436859993796054616966120564743350837374059162862928734", "light": "134.721918", "standaloneScore": "4.27", "lightSharePercent": "4.7612" }, { "id": "OUT-SL0138-1949-SEQUENTIAL-DECISION-BAYES-MINIMAX", "title": "序贯决策的贝叶斯、极小极大与递归表示", "year": "1949", "summary": "阿罗、David Blackwell和Meyer Girshick分析有取样成本时继续取样或停止行动的选择，以递归结构刻画有界问题的最优序贯策略。", "mReason": "M5.3反映可复用的序贯决策形式及其对动态规划表达的早期输入。对象是统计决策问题，不以影响Bellman为由领取全部动态规划。", "aReason": "SL-0138 0.25：共同建模与递归决策表达；EXT-NAME:DAVID-BLACKWELL 0.25：共同统计决策推导；EXT-NAME:MEYER-GIRSHICK 0.25：共同统计决策推导；ARROW::WALD-SEQUENTIAL-ANALYSIS-DECISION-PREHISTORY 0.15：既有序贯分析与统计决策；ARROW::RAND-RESEARCH-CONTEXT 0.05：研究会与协作环境；ARROW::UNRESOLVED-1949-ROLES 0.05：逐段手稿与分工待解析", "sources": [ { "label": "1949年序贯决策论文 DOI", "url": "https://doi.org/10.2307/1905525" }, { "label": "Celebratio：Blackwell与1949论文摘要", "url": "https://celebratio.org/Blackwell_DH/article/255/" }, { "label": "INFORMS：Arrow库存研究回顾", "url": "https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/epdf/10.1287/opre.50.1.1.17785" } ], "missing": "1949原文全部技术假设与三人逐段贡献尚需核读。；与后来的动态规划和1951库存方法的直接消费边界需继续专题校准。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1949年Arrow、Blackwell、Girshick研究继续取样与停止行动的有成本选择，刻画最优序贯决策与递归结构。不领取Wald先行序贯分析、Bellman后来的完整动态规划体系，库存具体政策在另一项。", "M": "5.3", "budget": [ { "actor": "肯尼斯·阿罗", "actorId": "SL-0138", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.25" }, { "actor": "David Blackwell（序贯统计决策共同作者）", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:DAVID-BLACKWELL", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.25" }, { "actor": "Meyer Girshick（序贯统计决策共同作者）", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:MEYER-GIRSHICK", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.25" }, { "actor": "Wald序贯分析与统计决策前驱", "actorId": "KENNETH-ARROW::ARROW::WALD-SEQUENTIAL-ANALYSIS-DECISION-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": 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D. 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