{ "personId": "sl-0497", "uid": "SL-0497", "name": "埃隆·马斯克", "version": "V2研究贡献账", "updatedAt": "2026-09-15", "formula": { "q": "Q = 10^(M/2) − 1", "light": "Lᵢ = aᵢ × Qᵢ", "total": "L = Σ Lᵢ", "score": "S = 2 × log₁₀(1 + L)" }, "scopeNote": "本轮当前已列5项有限研究账；M与归功份额为可修订判断。未覆盖内容和未核清的负面作用不按零处理，具体缺口见逐项说明。", "exclusions": [ { "id": "MUSK-SCOPE-1", "title": "未纳入范围与责任边界", "reason": "Neuralink、Boring Company 和计划性火星项目尚缺交付、监管、使用与外部性证据链。", "sources": [ { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://www.tesla.com/en_au/elon-musk" }, { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://new.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9" } ] }, { "id": "MUSK-SCOPE-2", "title": "未纳入范围与责任边界", "reason": "公司估值、财富、所有员工和承包商成果、全部发射或全部车辆不归个人。", "sources": [ { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://www.tesla.com/en_au/elon-musk" }, { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://new.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9" } ] }, { "id": "MUSK-SCOPE-3", "title": "未纳入范围与责任边界", "reason": "自动驾驶、供应链、道路安全、劳动、隐私、内容治理和环境影响须由独立责任链核定，不能用公司成功或指控自动归零。", "sources": [ { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://www.tesla.com/en_au/elon-musk" }, { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://new.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9" } ] }, { "id": "MUSK-X-TWITTER-ACQUISITION-GOVERNANCE", "title": "Twitter/X收购及治理后果", "reason": "2022年取得控制权是已完成交易/治理行动，不等于言论自由、信息质量、用户福利或文明正向交付。平台产品、员工、用户、广告主与监管共同决定后果，暂不进入正向合计。", "sources": [ { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://www.tesla.com/en_au/elon-musk" }, { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://new.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9" } ] }, { "id": "MUSK-LABOR-PRIVACY-BOUNDARIES", "title": "劳工与隐私争议", "reason": "NLRB案记录员工公开信后解雇争议且2025年双方共同申请无偏见撤诉；FTC/DOJ材料提出X隐私安全风险指称，均非终局个人违法认定。劳工解雇和平台隐私治理是可分企业伤害/责任链，公开保留但不从正向产品M重复扣，也不发明净公式。", "sources": [ { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://www.tesla.com/en_au/elon-musk" }, { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://new.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9" } ] }, { "id": "MUSK-NEURALINK", "title": "Neuralink研究及应用", "reason": "需临床试验、监管、参与者结局、动物研究、团队归功与隐私/安全证据；融资和演示不构成交付。", "sources": [ { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://www.tesla.com/en_au/elon-musk" }, { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://new.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9" } ] }, { "id": "MUSK-BORING-COMPANY", "title": "Boring Company隧道与运输", "reason": "需已建线路、运量、成本、地方合同、团队与安全证据。", "sources": [ { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://www.tesla.com/en_au/elon-musk" }, { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://new.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9" } ] }, { "id": "MUSK-MARS-AND-FUTURE-PROJECTS", "title": "火星与其他未来计划", "reason": "计划性火星架构和未来承诺不按完成成果估值。", "sources": [ { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://www.tesla.com/en_au/elon-musk" }, { "label": "原始机构资料与历史研究", "url": "https://new.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9" } ] }, { "id": "MUSK-XAI-STARSHIP-TESTS", "title": "xAI与Starship试验阶段的独立交付", "reason": "尚未独立评估具体模型产品、试验数据的可复用贡献及安全、资源和治理后果；不把已有试验等同于已实现火星运输，也不把未估值当作没有成果。", "sources": [ { "label": "SpaceX：Falcon 9", "url": "https://new.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9" }, { "label": "Tesla：2006 Master Plan", "url": "https://www.tesla.com/secret-master-plan" }, { "label": "美国国家劳资关系委员会：SpaceX 案件 docket", "url": "https://www.nlrb.gov/case/19-CA-309274" } ] } ], "items": [ { "id": "OUT-SL0497-2002-2025-REUSABLE-ORBITAL-CREW-LAUNCH", "title": "SpaceX可复用轨道发射与商业载人系统领导", "year": "2002-2025", "summary": "以创办、行政与设计领导参与 Falcon/Dragon 的方向，涵盖2015年轨道级一级返回着陆及经 NASA 认证的 Falcon 9/Crew Dragon 商业载人系统。按已飞行的可复用发射与载人系统计一次；火星计划、客户载荷、全部发射、成本主张和公司估值排除。", "mReason": "实现反复飞行的轨道发射器回收和认证载人系统，属于高复杂度、可持续基础工程，取M6.4。公司自述的成本和可靠性未独立验证只扩大区间，不把个人职位变成全公司成果。", "aReason": "Musk 0.16；Shotwell及运营0.11；核心工程制造发射团队0.29；NASA合同认证0.16；火箭前史0.12；供应商/宇航员/客户0.10；个人决策未解析0.06。", "sources": [ { "label": "Tesla：埃隆·马斯克个人资料", "url": "https://www.tesla.com/en_au/elon-musk" }, { "label": "SpaceX：Falcon 9", "url": "https://new.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9" }, { "label": "SpaceX：mission 页面", "url": "https://new.spacex.com/mission" } ], "missing": "需独立发射清单、失败事故、成本、复用次数、环境和合同资料。；个人设计决策相对工程团队的边际份额待核。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "2002至2025年Falcon/Dragon方向、2015轨道级一级返回着陆及NASA认证Falcon 9/Crew Dragon商业载人系统。按实际飞行的可复用发射与载人系统合族；火星计划、客户载荷、全部发射和公司估值排除。", "M": "6.4", "budget": [ { "actor": "埃隆·马斯克", "actorId": "SL-0497", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.16" }, { "actor": "Gwynne Shotwell 与 SpaceX 行政运行团队", "actorId": "MUSK::GWYNNE-SHOTWELL-AND-SPACEX-EXECUTIVE-OPERATIONS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.11" }, { "actor": "SpaceX 推进、结构、软件、制造与发射团队", "actorId": "MUSK::SPACEX-PROPULSION-STRUCTURE-SOFTWARE-MANUFACTURING-AND-LAUNCH-TEAMS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.29" }, { "actor": "NASA 合同、认证与技术合作体系", "actorId": "MUSK::NASA-CONTRACTS-CERTIFICATION-AND-TECHNICAL-PARTNERSHIP", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.16" }, { "actor": "政府与商业火箭工程前史", "actorId": "MUSK::GOVERNMENT-AND-COMMERCIAL-ROCKET-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.12" }, { "actor": "供应商、承包商、宇航员与客户", "actorId": "MUSK::SUPPLIERS-CONTRACTORS-ASTRONAUTS-AND-CUSTOMERS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.1" }, { "actor": "尚未解析的个人决策与系统归属", "actorId": "MUSK::UNRESOLVED-PERSONAL-DECISION-AND-SYSTEM-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.06" } ], "share": "0.16", "exactLight": "253.4229107937781576323362197426411221231107414120062509306074899706650981869526368176324358153777670", "light": "253.422911", "standaloneScore": "4.81", "lightSharePercent": "47.3180" }, { "id": "OUT-SL0497-2004-2025-TESLA-EV-ENERGY-PRODUCT-SYSTEM", "title": "Tesla电动车与能源产品路线的组织和产品领导", "year": "2004-2025", "summary": "以早期投资、董事长/CEO和产品路线领导参与实际电动车、电池储能及太阳能产品组织。2006 Master Plan 只作为路线的同期证据；电动车发明、全球减排、所有 Tesla 产品、自动驾驶完成度、市值和销量不由此归个人。", "mReason": "实际交付跨车辆、电池、制造和充电的复杂产品系统，按广泛工业平台取M6.0。没有独立销量/减排资料限制高档与scope，不因未读材料直接扣M。", "aReason": "Musk 0.14；早期创始/工程团队0.13；公司工程制造服务0.27；技术前史0.16；供应链、工人、基础设施、监管和用户0.18；资本董事会0.07；未解析0.05。", "sources": [ { "label": "Tesla：2006 Master Plan", "url": "https://www.tesla.com/secret-master-plan" }, { "label": "Tesla：埃隆·马斯克个人资料", "url": "https://www.tesla.com/en_au/elon-musk" }, { "label": "Tesla 投资者材料", "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000110465924048040/tm2326076d13_pre14a-gen.pdf" } ], "missing": "需独立车型交付、能源产品、减排、道路安全、供应链和劳动资料。；个人产品决策相对创始团队与工程制造团队的边际份额待核。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "2004至2025年以初始投资、董事长/CEO和产品路线领导参与实际电动车、电池储能及太阳能产品组织；2006计划只作为路线证据。按产品系统族计一次，不领取电动车发明、全球减排、所有Tesla产品、自动驾驶完成度、市值或销量本身。", "M": "6.0", "budget": [ { "actor": "埃隆·马斯克", "actorId": "SL-0497", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.14" }, { "actor": "Tesla 创始与早期工程团队", "actorId": "MUSK::TESLA-FOUNDING-AND-EARLY-ENGINEERING-TEAM", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.13" }, { "actor": "Tesla 车辆、电池、软件、制造与服务团队", "actorId": "MUSK::TESLA-VEHICLE-BATTERY-SOFTWARE-MANUFACTURING-AND-SERVICE-TEAMS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.27" }, { "actor": "锂离子、电动车、太阳能与汽车工程前史", "actorId": "MUSK::LITHIUM-ION-EV-SOLAR-AND-AUTOMOTIVE-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.16" }, { "actor": "供应商、工厂劳动者、充电网络、监管者与消费者", "actorId": "MUSK::SUPPLIERS-FACTORY-WORKERS-CHARGING-REGULATORS-AND-CONSUMERS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.18" }, { "actor": "资本、董事会与商业伙伴", "actorId": "MUSK::CAPITAL-BOARD-AND-COMMERCIAL-PARTNERS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.07" }, { "actor": "尚未解析的个人产品与组织归属", "actorId": "MUSK::UNRESOLVED-PERSONAL-PRODUCT-AND-ORGANIZATIONAL-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.05" } ], "share": "0.14", "exactLight": "139.86", "light": "139.860000", "standaloneScore": "4.30", "lightSharePercent": "26.1140" }, { "id": "OUT-SL0497-2019-2024-STARLINK-SATELLITE-BROADBAND-NETWORK", "title": "Starlink运行中的低轨卫星宽带网络服务", "year": "2019-2024", "summary": "由 SpaceX 团队实际运行的低轨卫星宽带网络，包含卫星、用户终端、网络软件、地面站及持续补网。按独立通信服务计；Falcon 仅为共享输入，未来全球覆盖、军事/冲突用途和全部 SpaceX 卫星活动不计。公司报告的用户数只证明服务运行，不直接决定贡献尺度；天文干扰、轨道拥挤和环境边界保留。", "mReason": "Starlink已形成大规模持续运行的卫星互联网网络，按广覆盖通信基础设施取M5.8。公司自报客户规模不用于机械定级；天文干扰、轨道拥挤与碰撞风险是系统不可分外部性，限制高档。", "aReason": "Musk 0.12；工程团队0.30；网络运营0.18；通信前史0.14；Falcon输入0.08；供应监管用户0.10；受影响群体0.03；未解析0.05。", "sources": [ { "label": "Starlink：2024 进展报告", "url": "https://www.starlink.com/public-files/starlinkProgressReport_2024.pdf" } ], "missing": "客户和网络表现主要为公司自报，需独立覆盖、质量、价格和中断数据。；需天文影响、轨道碰撞/再入、环境及冲突地区治理的独立净边界。；个人决策相对Starlink工程运营领导的份额待核。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "截至2024年已运行并由公司报告客户从约200万增长至460万的低轨卫星宽带网络、用户终端和地面/轨道运营。客户数字只证明服务实际运行，不直接决定M。Falcon只作为共享发射输入，不复算发射成果；未来全球覆盖、军事/冲突用途及全部SpaceX卫星活动排除。", "M": "5.8", "budget": [ { "actor": "埃隆·马斯克", "actorId": "SL-0497", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.12" }, { "actor": "Starlink 卫星网络、终端、软件与系统工程师", "actorId": "MUSK::STARLINK-SATELLITE-NETWORK-SOFTWARE-TERMINAL-AND-SYSTEMS-ENGINEERS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.3" }, { "actor": "Starlink 网络、地面站、客户与运营团队", "actorId": "MUSK::STARLINK-NETWORK-GROUND-STATION-CUSTOMER-AND-OPERATIONS-TEAMS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.18" }, { "actor": "卫星通信、互联网与低地球轨道前史", "actorId": "MUSK::SATELLITE-TELECOMMUNICATIONS-INTERNET-AND-LOW-EARTH-ORBIT-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.14" }, { "actor": "作为共享输入的 Falcon 发射系统", "actorId": "MUSK::FALCON-LAUNCH-SYSTEM-AS-CONSUMED-INFRASTRUCTURE-INPUT", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.08" }, { "actor": "供应商、监管者、电信伙伴与用户", "actorId": "MUSK::SUPPLIERS-REGULATORS-TELECOM-PARTNERS-AND-USERS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.1" }, { "actor": "天文学、空间安全与环境利益相关者", "actorId": "MUSK::ASTRONOMY-SPACE-SAFETY-AND-ENVIRONMENTAL-STAKEHOLDERS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.03" }, { "actor": "尚未解析的个人与网络归属", "actorId": "MUSK::UNRESOLVED-PERSONAL-AND-NETWORK-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.05" } ], "share": "0.12", "exactLight": "95.19938816691378024791019394036655191067527581065811985107887151803468366297850449965143022166283337", "light": "95.199388", "standaloneScore": "3.97", "lightSharePercent": "17.7752" }, { "id": "OUT-SL0497-1999-2002-XCOM-PAYPAL-ONLINE-PAYMENTS", "title": "X.com至PayPal在线支付平台的共同创业与组织交付", "year": "1999-2002", "summary": "参与创办 X.com、与 Confinity 合并形成 PayPal 并交付在线支付服务。只计其参与阶段的创业与组织残余；PayPal 全部技术、后续运营、eBay 收购金额和现代支付产业不归个人。", "mReason": "实际交付跨用户、商户和金融网络的在线支付平台，按多边数字服务取M4.7。Musk只领参与阶段低份额，收购额不计价值。", "aReason": "Musk 0.15；X.com/Confinity/PayPal创始领导0.25；工程风控运营0.27；支付前史0.14；金融伙伴用户0.12；合并归属未解析0.07。", "sources": [ { "label": "Tesla Investor Relations：Elon Musk 公司资料", "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/corporate/elon-musk" } ], "missing": "需X.com/Confinity合并、产品、技术、风控和个人决策原始资料。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1999至2002年X.com创办、与Confinity合并形成PayPal及在线支付服务交付。只计Musk参与阶段的创业与组织残余；不领取PayPal全部技术、后续运营、eBay收购金额或现代支付产业。", "M": "4.7", "budget": [ { "actor": "埃隆·马斯克", "actorId": "SL-0497", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.15" }, { "actor": "X.com、Confinity/PayPal 创办人与高管", "actorId": "MUSK::XCOM-AND-CONFINITY-PAYPAL-FOUNDERS-AND-EXECUTIVES", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.25" }, { "actor": "PayPal 软件、风控、反欺诈、运营与服务团队", "actorId": "MUSK::PAYPAL-SOFTWARE-RISK-FRAUD-OPERATIONS-AND-SERVICE-TEAMS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.27" }, { "actor": "银行、银行卡、在线支付与安全技术前史", "actorId": "MUSK::BANKING-CARD-ONLINE-PAYMENT-AND-SECURITY-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.14" }, { "actor": "商户、用户、银行、监管者与合作伙伴", "actorId": "MUSK::MERCHANTS-USERS-BANKS-REGULATORS-AND-PARTNERS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.12" }, { "actor": "尚未解析的合并、产品与个人归属", "actorId": "MUSK::UNRESOLVED-MERGER-PRODUCT-AND-PERSONAL-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.07" } ], "share": "0.15", "exactLight": "33.43081707852509417932426278698613500560892096525705292098029850935076900367021464651171429236391655", "light": "33.430817", "standaloneScore": "3.07", "lightSharePercent": "6.2421" }, { "id": "OUT-SL0497-1990S-ZIP2-ONLINE-CITY-BUSINESS-SERVICE", "title": "Zip2在线城市与商业信息服务的创业交付", "year": "1990年代", "summary": "共同创建 Zip2 并交付在线城市与商业信息服务的创业和产品组织。只计实际公司及服务交付；收购价格、后续地图/本地搜索、具体工程发明和所有合作媒体效果排除。", "mReason": "形成实际在线信息产品与公司交付，按有界早期网络服务取M3.6；收购金额不进入M。", "aReason": "Musk 0.22；共同创始和团队0.32；技术/服务前史0.18；媒体和数据伙伴0.12；资本销售用户0.10；未解析0.06。", "sources": [ { "label": "Tesla Investor Relations：Elon Musk 公司资料", "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/corporate/elon-musk" } ], "missing": "需同期产品、团队、客户和个人决策档案；当前只作有限创业交付暂估。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1990年代共同创建Zip2并交付在线城市/商业信息服务的创业与产品组织。只计实际公司和服务交付；收购价格、后续地图/本地搜索、具体工程发明和所有合作媒体效果排除。", "M": "3.6", "budget": [ { "actor": "埃隆·马斯克", "actorId": "SL-0497", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.22" }, { "actor": "Zip2 共同创办人、工程与运营团队", "actorId": "MUSK::ZIP2-COFOUNDERS-ENGINEERS-AND-OPERATIONS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.32" }, { "actor": "在线目录、地图、Web 与地方媒体前史", "actorId": "MUSK::ONLINE-DIRECTORY-MAPPING-WEB-AND-LOCAL-MEDIA-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.18" }, { "actor": "报业、商业数据与发行伙伴", "actorId": "MUSK::NEWSPAPER-BUSINESS-DATA-AND-DISTRIBUTION-PARTNERS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.12" }, { "actor": "资本、销售、客户与用户", "actorId": "MUSK::CAPITAL-SALES-CUSTOMERS-AND-USERS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.1" }, { "actor": "尚未解析的产品与个人归属", "actorId": "MUSK::UNRESOLVED-PRODUCT-AND-PERSONAL-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.06" } ], "share": "0.22", "exactLight": "13.66106157856425148755592300569156502280479565814103193961004963433688875254910976660410949036034983", "light": "13.661062", "standaloneScore": "2.33", "lightSharePercent": "2.5507" } ], "exactTotalLight": "535.5741776177812835471265994756853740621997338460624556422767096323874396061504657303996898197648668", "totalLight": "535.574178", "exactScore": "5.459259537238558306580190790470479588983570912810284493084372477563526580542621615870744490276973768", "displayScore": "5.46", "provisionalCount": 5, "provenance": { "releaseId": "research-200-20260914", "baselineLedgerSha256": "8bdd406b3e20ae22357644499e622922c670ff11010df0478c70c23b38902108", "c24DeltaSha256": "b0b96144d1d3397e54a61c3d706ff2da5920fe7617e3bef50407149cb97d9d62", "generatorSha256": "25de659e9852503508e7c27d8a31773b8da5d6310531b1e3699d18cc94319929" }, "priorScopeNote": "5项已列贡献的研究估分，含5项暂估。账本覆盖有限的主要成果，尚未穷尽生涯。M与归功份额是可修订的评估判断；未覆盖经历和负面影响不按零处理。", "rank": 120 }