{ "personId": "sl-1350", "uid": "SL-1350", "name": "阿莫斯·特沃斯基", "version": "V2研究贡献账", "updatedAt": "2026-09-15", "formula": { "q": "Q = 10^(M/2) − 1", "light": "Lᵢ = aᵢ × Qᵢ", "total": "L = Σ Lᵢ", "score": "S = 2 × log₁₀(1 + L)" }, "scopeNote": "本轮当前已列5项有限研究账；M与归功份额为可修订判断。未覆盖内容和未核清的负面作用不按零处理，具体缺口见逐项说明。", "exclusions": [ { "id": "TVERSKY-SPATIAL-COGNITION-AND-LATE-COLLABORATIONS", "title": "空间认知及晚期合作研究", "reason": "初包只提示未召回，尚无主要终态证据。" } ], "items": [ { "id": "OUT-SL1350-1979-PROSPECT-THEORY", "title": "前景理论与累计前景理论的风险选择模型演进", "year": "1979–1992", "summary": "1979给出参照依赖、价值函数和决策权重模型；1992由同一作者将其改成累计表示，扩展多结果/不确定选择并修正随机支配边界。", "mReason": "CASBS、SEP及1992原论文支持两位作者的模型演进。按原模型奠基、累计修订及扩展范围取M6.7；不是把1992当外部后继，也不按两篇论文复制M。", "aReason": "Tversky/Kahneman各 .34，团队 .05，前史 .15，机构 .04，未解析 .08。", "sources": [ { "label": "原作与机构资料：casbs.stanford.edu", "url": "https://casbs.stanford.edu/casbs-history-behavioral-economics" }, { "label": "原作与机构资料：plato.stanford.edu", "url": "https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/bounded-rationality/" }, { "label": "原作与机构资料：psych.fullerton.edu", "url": "https://psych.fullerton.edu/mBIRNBAUM/psych466/articles/Tversky_Kahneman_JRU_92.pdf" }, { "label": "原作与机构资料：doi.org", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00122574" } ], "missing": "1979/1992作者分工、数据输入及累计修订的实际预测增量仍需原稿档案。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1979原始前景理论及Tversky/Kahneman 1992累计前景理论：参照点、价值函数、概率权重与按累积概率处理多结果/不确定选择；不领取金融市场、政策和全部行为经济学。", "M": "6.7", "budget": [ { "actor": "阿莫斯·特沃斯基", "actorId": "SL-1350", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.34" }, { "actor": "丹尼尔·卡尼曼", "actorId": "SL-0241", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.34" }, { "actor": "前景理论研究与文稿支持团队", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::PROSPECT-THEORY-RESEARCH-AND-MANUSCRIPT-SUPPORT-TEAM", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.05" }, { "actor": "期望效用、风险选择与决策理论前驱", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::EXPECTED-UTILITY-RISK-CHOICE-AND-DECISION-THEORY-PREDECESSORS", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.15" }, { "actor": "CASBS、斯坦福与出版机构", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::CASBS-STANFORD-AND-PUBLICATION-INSTITUTIONS", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.04" }, { "actor": "未分配的前景理论贡献", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::UNRESOLVED-PROSPECT-THEORY-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.08" } ], "share": "0.34", "exactLight": "760.8251871132354680646832898383523934604688752124931995422200995452840974165248653209321906269154418", "light": "760.825187", "standaloneScore": "5.76", "lightSharePercent": "34.2376" }, { "id": "OUT-SL1350-1977-CONTRAST-MODEL-OF-SIMILARITY", "title": "相似性判断的特征对比模型", "year": "1977", "summary": "质疑度量/维度假设，以特征匹配的对比模型解释非对称、情境和共同/区别特征效应。", "mReason": "原论文摘要与正文首页明确模型、假设、实验对象和推广范围，按独立形式与实验终态取M5.9。", "aReason": "Tversky .50，研究讨论团队 .09，前史 .24，机构 .04，未解析 .13。", "sources": [ { "label": "原作与机构资料：worthylab.org", "url": "https://worthylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/tversky1977_featuresofsimilarity_psychreview.pdf" }, { "label": "原作与机构资料：www.cambridge.org", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/judgment-and-decision-making/article/using-tverskys-contrast-model-to-investigate-how-features-of-similarity-affect-judgments-of-likelihood/033D48CD80E7AC157931CA01325FD2FB" } ], "missing": "具体共同讨论者、实验材料和后续修正未闭合。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1977《Features of Similarity》的集合特征表示、共同/区别特征加权及非对称、情境相似性解释；不领取后继分类、机器学习或消费者应用。", "M": "5.9", "budget": [ { "actor": "阿莫斯·特沃斯基", "actorId": "SL-1350", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.5" }, { "actor": "特沃斯基相似性研究与讨论合作者", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::TVERSKY-SIMILARITY-STUDY-AND-DISCUSSION-COLLABORATORS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.09" }, { "actor": "几何相似性、聚类、原型与特征前驱", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::GEOMETRIC-SIMILARITY-CLUSTERING-PROTOTYPE-AND-FEATURE-PREDECESSORS", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.24" }, { "actor": "希伯来大学与《心理学评论》相似性研究", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::HEBREW-UNIVERSITY-AND-PSYCHOLOGICAL-REVIEW-SIMILARITY", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.04" }, { "actor": "未分配的相似性模型贡献", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::UNRESOLVED-TVERSKY-SIMILARITY-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.13" } ], "share": "0.5", "exactLight": "445.1254690668727649765543405391484819929373914650241849739717475337344552959506746378231229992762236", "light": "445.125469", "standaloneScore": "5.30", "lightSharePercent": "20.0309" }, { "id": "OUT-SL1350-1971-1984-HEURISTICS-BIASES-AND-FRAMING", "title": "不确定判断的启发式、偏差与框架效应研究", "year": "1970年代—1980年代", "summary": "用成组实验显示判断对简化启发式与呈现框架存在可预测偏离，并提供可检验分类。", "mReason": "共同论文目录确认启发式与框架代表作，按跨任务的可检验心理机制与研究议程取M6.3；复制差异、任务依赖和把描述误作普遍因果处方的风险均限制M。", "aReason": "Tversky .31，Kahneman .31，研究执行 .07，前史 .16，机构 .04，未解析 .11。", "sources": [ { "label": "原作与机构资料：kahneman.scholar.princeton.edu", "url": "https://kahneman.scholar.princeton.edu/publications" }, { "label": "原作与机构资料：casbs.stanford.edu", "url": "https://casbs.stanford.edu/casbs-history-behavioral-economics" } ], "missing": "逐实验样本、材料、研究助理与复制边界未闭合。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1970年代至1980年代代表性、可得性、锚定及框架效应的共同实验与论述族；不含前景理论正式风险模型，不领取全部行为经济学、政策应用或后继复制。", "M": "6.3", "budget": [ { "actor": "阿莫斯·特沃斯基", "actorId": "SL-1350", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.31" }, { "actor": "丹尼尔·卡尼曼", "actorId": "SL-0241", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.31" }, { "actor": "特沃斯基–卡尼曼研究助理与数据团队", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::TVERSKY-KAHNEMAN-RESEARCH-ASSISTANTS-AND-DATA-TEAM", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.07" }, { "actor": "判断、决策、统计与有限理性前驱", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::JUDGMENT-DECISION-STATISTICS-AND-BOUNDED-RATIONALITY-PREDECESSORS", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.16" }, { "actor": "未分配的早期机构支持", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::UNRESOLVED-TVERSKY-KAHNEMAN-EARLY-INSTITUTIONAL-SUPPORT", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.04" }, { "actor": "未分配的启发式研究贡献", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::UNRESOLVED-TVERSKY-HEURISTICS-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.11" } ], "share": "0.31", "exactLight": "437.5766388330538336682384378183746882348120065313932383827102534914585564472011110890269910291297362", "light": "437.576639", "standaloneScore": "5.28", "lightSharePercent": "19.6912" }, { "id": "OUT-SL1350-1969-1972-INTRANSITIVE-PREFERENCES-AND-ELIMINATION-BY-ASPECTS", "title": "偏好非传递性与按属性淘汰选择模型", "year": "1969–1972", "summary": "证明特定条件下非传递偏好可系统出现，并给出逐属性淘汰、可由选择概率检验且推广既有模型的过程理论。", "mReason": "1969摘要与1972原论文摘要支持实验命题和模型终态，取M5.9；不按两篇论文复制M。", "aReason": "Tversky .48，研究团队 .08，前史 .25，机构 .04，未解析 .15。", "sources": [ { "label": "原作与机构资料：www.researchgate.net", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/232461825_Intransitivity_of_preferences" }, { "label": "原作与机构资料：www.sciencedirect.com", "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0022249672900119" }, { "label": "原作与机构资料：cir.nii.ac.jp", "url": "https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1362825895842893696" } ], "missing": "两篇之间的模型消费及实验共同执行人员未闭合。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1969可预测偏好非传递性实验与1972按属性淘汰/choice-by-elimination模型；二者按‘非全局效用的逐属性选择’连续理论族合并，不含风险前景模型。", "M": "5.9", "budget": [ { "actor": "阿莫斯·特沃斯基", "actorId": "SL-1350", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.48" }, { "actor": "特沃斯基选择实验与研究团队", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::TVERSKY-CHOICE-EXPERIMENT-AND-RESEARCH-TEAM", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.08" }, { "actor": "卢斯、雷斯特尔与效用测量前驱", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::LUCE-RESTLE-UTILITY-MEASUREMENT-AND-STOCHASTIC-CHOICE-PREDECESSORS", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.25" }, { "actor": "希伯来大学与《心理学评论》", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::HEBREW-UNIVERSITY-AND-PSYCHOLOGICAL-REVIEW", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.04" }, { "actor": "未分配的选择模型贡献", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::UNRESOLVED-TVERSKY-CHOICE-MODEL-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.15" } ], "share": "0.48", "exactLight": "427.3204503041978543774921669175825427132198958064232175750128776323850770841126476523101980793051747", "light": "427.320450", "standaloneScore": "5.26", "lightSharePercent": "19.2297" }, { "id": "OUT-SL1350-1967-1990-POLYNOMIAL-CONJOINT-FOUNDATIONS-MEASUREMENT", "title": "多项式联合测量与《Foundations of Measurement》", "year": "1967–1990", "summary": "将联合测量推广到部分序、有限结构及一般多项式模型，并与共同作者系统整理加法、多项式及其他表征/唯一性基础。", "mReason": "Michigan原论文页明确1967五类推广，三卷书目明确四位共同作者。按独立形式体系取M5.9，不因卷数复制。", "aReason": "Tversky/Krantz/Luce/Suppes各.17，排除Luce后的前史.15，出版.04，未解析.13。", "sources": [ { "label": "原作与机构资料：deepblue.lib.umich.edu", "url": "https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/items/81878138-5b0a-4657-b5f2-acbcb6a1607c" }, { "label": "原作与机构资料：api.pageplace.de", "url": "https://api.pageplace.de/preview/DT0400.9781483258300_A23865856/preview-9781483258300_A23865856.pdf" }, { "label": "原作与机构资料：catalogimages.wiley.com", "url": "https://catalogimages.wiley.com/images/db/pdf/9781119312178.excerpt.pdf" }, { "label": "原作与机构资料：www.sciencedirect.com", "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/002224966490015X" } ], "missing": "三卷逐章分工及1967论文被第一卷消费的具体程度未闭合。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "Tversky 1967一般多项式联合测量，以及Krantz/Luce/Suppes/Tversky 1971、1989、1990三卷《Foundations of Measurement》的表征体系；不领取Luce–Tukey 1964首创或消费者应用。", "M": "5.9", "budget": [ { "actor": "阿莫斯·特沃斯基", "actorId": "SL-1350", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.17" }, { "actor": "大卫·H.克兰茨", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:DAVID-H-KRANTZ", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.17" }, { "actor": "R.邓肯·卢斯", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:R-DUNCAN-LUCE", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.17" }, { "actor": "帕特里克·萨普斯", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:PATRICK-SUPPES", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.17" }, { "actor": "约翰·图基、坎贝尔、赫尔德等测量论前驱", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::JOHN-TUKEY-CAMPBELL-HOLDER-AND-MEASUREMENT-PREDECESSORS", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.15" }, { "actor": "Academic Press与测量论出版链", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::ACADEMIC-PRESS-AND-DIRECT-MEASUREMENT-PUBLICATION-CHAIN", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.04" }, { "actor": "未分配的测量论基础贡献", "actorId": "AMOS-TVERSKY::UNRESOLVED-FOUNDATIONS-MEASUREMENT-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.13" } ], "share": "0.17", "exactLight": "151.3426594827367400920284757833104838775987130981082228911503941614697148006232293768598618197539160", "light": "151.342659", "standaloneScore": "4.37", "lightSharePercent": "6.8105" } ], "exactTotalLight": "2222.190404800096661178996710896768590279036882113442063365065372364331901044412528076952364554380492", "totalLight": "2222.190405", "exactScore": "6.693953318751870101987329729588904964735591443283663966103879405074880405197653787552746001325957882", "displayScore": "6.69", "provisionalCount": 5, "provenance": { "releaseId": "research-200-20260914", "baselineLedgerSha256": "8bdd406b3e20ae22357644499e622922c670ff11010df0478c70c23b38902108", "c24DeltaSha256": "b0b96144d1d3397e54a61c3d706ff2da5920fe7617e3bef50407149cb97d9d62", "generatorSha256": "25de659e9852503508e7c27d8a31773b8da5d6310531b1e3699d18cc94319929" }, "priorScopeNote": "5项已列贡献的研究估分，含5项暂估。账本覆盖有限的主要成果，尚未穷尽生涯。M与归功份额是可修订的评估判断；未覆盖经历和负面影响不按零处理。", "rank": 27 }