{ "personId": "sl-1927", "uid": "SL-1927", "name": "茂木清夫", "version": "V2研究贡献账", "updatedAt": "2026-09-15", "formula": { "q": "Q = 10^(M/2) − 1", "light": "Lᵢ = aᵢ × Qᵢ", "total": "L = Σ Lᵢ", "score": "S = 2 × log₁₀(1 + L)" }, "scopeNote": "本轮当前已列4项有限研究账；M与归功份额为可修订判断。未覆盖内容和未核清的负面作用不按零处理，具体缺口见逐项说明。", "exclusions": [ { "id": "UNRESOLVED-POLICY-AND-ATTRIBUTION", "title": "尚未落实的政策与后续归功", "reason": "政策实施、后世采用及各参与者的具体份额不在现有材料中逐项确证。" }, { "id": "NO-PRECISE-PREDICTION", "title": "精确地震预报", "reason": "地震危险性研究不等同于对特定地震的精准预报。" } ], "items": [ { "id": "OUT-SL1927-1958-VOLCANO-DEFORMATION-PRESSURE-SOURCE-MODEL", "title": "火山地表形变的埋藏压力源模型", "year": "1958", "summary": "火山地表形变的埋藏压力源模型。1958原论文作品终态。", "mReason": "GSJ核实1958原论文，1971同行论文明确其模型解释Sakurajima/Hawaii并作为重要火山机制视角；按高复用科学模型取M6.0。", "aReason": "Mogi0.40，Yamakawa0.14，测地团队0.17，前史0.15，东京大学0.06，未解析0.08。", "sources": [ { "label": "公开资料：gbank.gsj.jp", "url": "https://gbank.gsj.jp/ld/resource/geolis/300006065.html" }, { "label": "公开资料：www.jstage.jst.go.jp", "url": "https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jpe1952/19/3/19_3_199/_pdf" } ], "missing": "未逐页核原论文推导与观测残差。；Yamakawa及测地资料生产者份额仍需原始引用表。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1958以半无限弹性介质中小球形胀缩压力源解释Sakurajima与Hawaii火山周围地表形变；不声称真实岩浆系统均为球形，也不领取后续数值火山模型。", "M": "6.0", "budget": [ { "actor": "茂木清夫", "actorId": "SL-1927", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.4" }, { "actor": "Takeo Yamakawa", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:TAKEO-YAMAKAWA-ELASTIC-SOURCE-WORK", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.14" }, { "actor": "地表形变观测资料团队", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::SAKURAJIMA-AND-HAWAII-GEODETIC-SURVEY-TEAMS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.17" }, { "actor": "弹性理论、测地与火山构造解释前史", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::ELASTIC-HALF-SPACE-VOLCANOLOGY-AND-GEODESY-PREDECESSORS", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.15" }, { "actor": "东京大学地震研究所", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::EARTHQUAKE-RESEARCH-INSTITUTE-UNIVERSITY-OF-TOKYO", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.06" }, { "actor": "未解析的数据生产、推导辅助和资料选择贡献", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::UNRESOLVED-MOGI-MODEL-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.08" } ], "share": "0.4", "exactLight": "399.6", "light": "399.600000", "standaloneScore": "5.21", "lightSharePercent": "34.8662" }, { "id": "OUT-SL1927-1963-1990-EARTHQUAKE-SEQUENCE-AND-FAULT-HETEROGENEITY", "title": "前震、余震、群震与大震时空序列分类", "year": "1963", "summary": "前震、余震、群震与大震时空序列分类。1963将余震、前震、群震置于半无限体断裂/应力模型讨论。", "mReason": "东京大学、J-STAGE与Tectonophysics摘要支持从1963到1990的连续分类和机制工作；按现象分类与断层异质性假说取M5.8。", "aReason": "Mogi0.43，观测目录团队0.19，前史0.20，机构0.06，同业检验0.04，未解析0.08。", "sources": [ { "label": "公开资料：repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp", "url": "https://repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/records/33716" }, { "label": "公开资料：www.jstage.jst.go.jp", "url": "https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jpe1952/16/1/16_1_30/_article" }, { "label": "公开资料：www.sciencedirect.com", "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/004019519090127T" } ], "missing": "1963全文模型、1968样本选择与1990分类外部验证未系统核。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1963断裂模型下的前震/余震/群震讨论、1968大震余震区顺序覆盖及1990 A/B/C序列—海底地形解释的同一序列分类族；不按论文或类型复制M，不作为全球短临预报规则。", "M": "5.8", "budget": [ { "actor": "茂木清夫", "actorId": "SL-1927", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.43" }, { "actor": "地震目录、余震区和台网资料团队", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::JAPAN-SEISMIC-CATALOGUE-AFTERSHOCK-AND-OBSERVATORY-TEAMS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.19" }, { "actor": "断裂、应力、余震和群震研究前史", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::FRACTURE-MECHANICS-AFTERSHOCK-AND-SEISMICITY-PREDECESSORS", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.2" }, { "actor": "地震研究所与期刊机构", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::EARTHQUAKE-RESEARCH-INSTITUTE-AND-JOURNAL-INSTITUTIONS", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.06" }, { "actor": "同期地震学检验与比较研究者", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::CONTEMPORARY-SEISMOLOGY-CRITIQUE-AND-COMPARISON", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.04" }, { "actor": "未解析的目录编制、选样和跨论文贡献", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::UNRESOLVED-MOGI-SEQUENCE-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.08" } ], "share": "0.43", "exactLight": "341.1311409314410458883448616196468110132530716548582627996992896062909497923396411237509582942918196", "light": "341.131141", "standaloneScore": "5.07", "lightSharePercent": "29.7646" }, { "id": "OUT-SL1927-1966-1967-REGIONAL-MAGNITUDE-FREQUENCY-VARIATION", "title": "地震震级—频度参数的区域差异分析", "year": "1966", "summary": "地震震级—频度参数的区域差异分析。以Gutenberg–Richter和Ishimoto–Iida关系为基线研究区域变化。", "mReason": "1967原文开头明确以既有定律为基线研究区域变化，1966摘要列出四地区b/m/β比较；按独立统计诊断取M5.4。", "aReason": "Mogi0.42，台网目录0.20，前史0.23，机构0.06，未解析0.09。", "sources": [ { "label": "公开资料：repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp", "url": "https://repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/record/33497/files/ji0452003.pdf" }, { "label": "公开资料：www.jstage.jst.go.jp", "url": "https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/zisin1948/19/1/19_1_1/_article/-char/en" } ], "missing": "需核目录完备阈值、统计不确定度和跨区可比性。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1966–1967不同地区震级—频度、振幅—频度与烈度—频度参数比较；只计区域差异的统计分析，不领取Gutenberg–Richter定律或后续b值监测全部价值。", "M": "5.4", "budget": [ { "actor": "茂木清夫", "actorId": "SL-1927", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.42" }, { "actor": "震级、振幅、烈度和区域目录数据团队", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::JAPANESE-SEISMOLOGICAL-STATIONS-AND-CATALOGUE-TEAMS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.2" }, { "actor": "频度定律和参数定义前史", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::GUTENBERG-RICHTER-ISHIMOTO-IIDA-AND-STATISTICAL-SEISMOLOGY-PREDECESSORS", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.23" }, { "actor": "地震研究所与日本地震学会", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::EARTHQUAKE-RESEARCH-INSTITUTE-AND-SEISMOLOGICAL-SOCIETY-OF-JAPAN", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.06" }, { "actor": "未解析的数据校准、区域划分和辅助分析贡献", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::UNRESOLVED-MOGI-B-VALUE-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.09" } ], "share": "0.42", "exactLight": "210.0786381234543597006527584916772225853982357297840908504729314733847273893088893631036266102196696", "light": "210.078638", "standaloneScore": "4.65", "lightSharePercent": "18.3299" }, { "id": "OUT-SL1927-1969-2004-TOKAI-RISK-AND-PREDICTION-CRITIQUE", "title": "东海长期风险判断与地震预测制度批判", "year": "1969", "summary": "东海长期风险判断与地震预测制度批判。1965起项目期次、观测积累及截至1993无成功预测。", "mReason": "1995综述明示无成功预测，2004论文回顾1969命题并警告二元预报；M5.6评的是公开、可证伪且揭示方法边界的风险知识与批判，不把由此发生的监测制度或政策净效果纳入。", "aReason": "Mogi0.31，预测/监测团队0.25，协调会0.11，政府机构0.10，前史0.12，未解析0.11。", "sources": [ { "label": "公开资料：www.jstage.jst.go.jp", "url": "https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jpe1952/43/5/43_5_533/_article/-char/en" }, { "label": "公开资料：www.jstage.jst.go.jp", "url": "https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/eps1998/56/8/56_8_li/_article/-char/ja" } ], "missing": "1969原始论文/报告和委员会会议记录未读。；风险判断长期校准与政策成本尚无系统反事实。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1969东海区域长期风险命题、1995对日本预测计划“无成功案例”的证据综述、2004对black-and-white predictions的知识批判；M只计可审查的风险分析与自我限制文本，不计法律、监测支出、预测准确或灾害结果。", "M": "5.6", "budget": [ { "actor": "茂木清夫", "actorId": "SL-1927", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.31" }, { "actor": "日本地震预测研究与监测团队", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::JAPANESE-EARTHQUAKE-PREDICTION-RESEARCHERS-AND-MONITORING-TEAMS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.25" }, { "actor": "日本地震预知连络会", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::COORDINATING-COMMITTEE-FOR-EARTHQUAKE-PREDICTION", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.11" }, { "actor": "日本防灾与观测机构", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::JAPANESE-GOVERNMENT-DISASTER-AND-OBSERVATION-INSTITUTIONS", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.1" }, { "actor": "板块、历史地震与长期风险评估前史", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::LONG-TERM-SEISMIC-GAP-AND-RISK-ASSESSMENT-PREDECESSORS", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.12" }, { "actor": "未解析的1969判断资料、委员会分工和政策贡献", "actorId": "KIYOO-MOGI::UNRESOLVED-MOGI-TOKAI-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.11" } ], "share": "0.31", "exactLight": "195.2867767888599073246516423529265980486130297283509046035961539383834324222829103476033610005322021", "light": "195.286777", "standaloneScore": "4.59", "lightSharePercent": "17.0393" } ], "exactTotalLight": "1146.096555843755312913649262464250631647264337112993258253768375018059109603931440834457945905043691", "totalLight": "1146.096556", "exactScore": "6.119199951591940796533563494602742541594039219315011921498341141803664950799042095078389054706291856", "displayScore": "6.12", "provisionalCount": 4, "provenance": { "releaseId": "research-200-20260914", "baselineLedgerSha256": "8bdd406b3e20ae22357644499e622922c670ff11010df0478c70c23b38902108", "c24DeltaSha256": "b0b96144d1d3397e54a61c3d706ff2da5920fe7617e3bef50407149cb97d9d62", "generatorSha256": "25de659e9852503508e7c27d8a31773b8da5d6310531b1e3699d18cc94319929" }, "priorScopeNote": "4项已列贡献的研究估分，含4项暂估。账本覆盖有限的主要成果，尚未穷尽生涯。M与归功份额是可修订的评估判断；未覆盖经历和负面影响不按零处理。", "rank": 64 }