{ "personId": "sl-1942", "uid": "SL-1942", "name": "穆斯塔法·托尔巴", "version": "V2研究贡献账", "updatedAt": "2026-09-15", "formula": { "q": "Q = 10^(M/2) − 1", "light": "Lᵢ = aᵢ × Qᵢ", "total": "L = Σ Lᵢ", "score": "S = 2 × log₁₀(1 + L)" }, "scopeNote": "本轮当前已列4项有限研究账；M与归功份额为可修订判断。未覆盖内容和未核清的负面作用不按零处理，具体缺口见逐项说明。", "exclusions": [ { "id": "tolba-gap-1", "title": "《蒙特利尔议定书》的最终文本、批准、执行和臭氧层相关长期效果", "reason": "妥协草案尚待各国同意；科学、国家谈判、条约程序、产业转型、资金与执行均由多方完成。" }, { "id": "tolba-gap-2", "title": "巴塞尔公约、IPCC、生物多样性及其他UNEP时期事项", "reason": "当前输入缺少可定位的个人交付、原始会议文书和协作者边界。" }, { "id": "tolba-gap-3", "title": "大学科研、埃及教育行政和部长职务", "reason": "仅有履历级资料，尚未核明论文、课程、项目或政策交付。" }, { "id": "tolba-vienna-boundary", "title": "维也纳公约及后续政策效果", "reason": "目前未确认可独立于早期评估框架及蒙特利尔谈判的个人交付；各国采纳、执行与环境效果不另归个人。" } ], "items": [ { "id": "OUT-SL1942-1987-MONTREAL-COMPROMISE-NEGOTIATION-SERVICE", "title": "1987年蒙特利尔议定书分歧收窄与妥协文本服务", "year": "1987", "summary": "1987年臭氧议定书谈判期间，FRUS正文§1、§3记录临时主席小组在托尔巴的有效领导协助下收窄控制严格度和时间表分歧；他为后续谈判制作了妥协文本。该草案当时仍未获各参与国同意，不能写成条约、执行或环境效益的单人成果。", "mReason": "美国国务院1987-05-08电报正文§1、§3给出具体小组协助与控制条款妥协文本，而非仅有职称，故取制度谈判服务M5.3。该方案当时尚未获代表团正式同意，M只覆盖高杠杆但狭义的桥接终态，不等于整个蒙特利尔议定书的文明收益。", "aReason": "Tolba 0.20；科学与法律前史0.16；主席小组、谈判和起草0.22；国家代表团0.19；UNEP/秘书处0.12；技术利益相关方0.05；未解析0.06。", "sources": [ { "label": "美国国务院史官办公室：FRUS", "url": "https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1981-88v41/d362" }, { "label": "联合国环境规划署", "url": "https://www.unep.org/unep-50-leaders-through-years/mostafa-tolba" } ], "missing": "需1987年会议原始记录与妥协文本版本链确认他写作、团队修订及最终文本采用范围。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "只计1987年临时主席小组中可证的领导协助、严格度/时间表分歧收窄及供后续谈判使用的控制条款妥协文本；电报明确各代表团尚未正式同意该方案，因此不计最终议定书的科学、起草、采纳、批准、产业转型、执行和臭氧恢复收益。", "M": "5.3", "budget": [ { "actor": "穆斯塔法·托尔巴", "actorId": "SL-1942", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.2" }, { "actor": "臭氧科学评估与既有国际环境法前驱", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::OZONE-SCIENCE-ASSESSMENT-AND-PRIOR-ENVIRONMENTAL-LAW-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.16" }, { "actor": "蒙特利尔主席小组、谈判代表与法律起草者", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::MONTREAL-CHAIRMANS-GROUP-NEGOTIATORS-AND-LEGAL-DRAFTERS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.22" }, { "actor": "蒙特利尔议定书各国代表团与缔约方", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::MONTREAL-PROTOCOL-STATE-DELEGATIONS-AND-PARTIES", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.19" }, { "actor": "UNEP与臭氧秘书处", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::UNEP-AND-OZONE-SECRETARIAT", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.12" }, { "actor": "产业、非政府组织与技术利益相关方", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::INDUSTRY-NGO-AND-TECHNICAL-STAKEHOLDER-INPUTS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.05" }, { "actor": "蒙特利尔谈判文本、版本与具体分工待核部分", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::UNRESOLVED-MONTREAL-NEGOTIATION-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.06" } ], "share": "0.2", "exactLight": "89.13671843019262371125010486387532327546003572160291364033447046552368456825503197757313232972464384", "light": "89.136718", "standaloneScore": "3.91", "lightSharePercent": "34.6794" }, { "id": "OUT-SL1942-1975-1976-OZONE-RISK-PROGRAMME-WORLD-ACTION-PLAN", "title": "臭氧风险项目与世界臭氧行动计划的科学评估框架", "year": "1975–1976", "summary": "提出臭氧层风险项目，推动科学监测、影响评估与政府间持续协调。", "mReason": "Ozone Secretariat对1975 Tolba提案和1976行动计划的范围有明确记录，故取M5.1。该点的独立价值是把科学风险制度化为持续评估框架；1987谈判点只消费其输入，不重复一般科学或最终条约价值。", "aReason": "Tolba 0.18；科学前史0.20；UNEP项目团队0.20；科学家0.17；理事会代表0.12；UNEP 0.08；未解析0.05。", "sources": [ { "label": "臭氧秘书处：从科学到全球行动", "url": "https://ozone.unep.org/celebrating-40-years-vienna-convention-science-global-action-brief-history" } ], "missing": "尚缺1975提案原文、理事会讨论和1976行动计划起草链，个人份额不能扩大为计划唯一设计者。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "只计Tolba在1975年提出的臭氧风险项目，以及其在UNEP集体流程中转为1976年World Plan of Action的组织残余；科学发现、1985 Vienna Convention文本和采纳、1987 Montreal妥协谈判与后续执行排除。", "M": "5.1", "budget": [ { "actor": "穆斯塔法·托尔巴", "actorId": "SL-1942", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.18" }, { "actor": "臭氧化学、大气监测与风险评估前驱", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::OZONE-CHEMISTRY-ATMOSPHERIC-MONITORING-AND-RISK-ASSESSMENT-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.2" }, { "actor": "UNEP臭氧项目与协调委员会团队", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::UNEP-OZONE-PROGRAMME-AND-COORDINATING-COMMITTEE-STAFF", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.2" }, { "actor": "大气臭氧及影响研究科学家", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::ATMOSPHERIC-OZONE-AND-EFFECTS-SCIENTISTS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.17" }, { "actor": "UNEP理事会各国代表", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::UNEP-GOVERNING-COUNCIL-DELEGATES", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.12" }, { "actor": "联合国环境署", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::UNEP", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.08" }, { "actor": "待核实的早期臭氧项目贡献", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::UNRESOLVED-EARLY-OZONE-PROGRAMME-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.05" } ], "share": "0.18", "exactLight": "63.68641006204358251797936640760831168844242977175825352246108127276113653486690307316938715141166722", "light": "63.686410", "standaloneScore": "3.62", "lightSharePercent": "24.7777" }, { "id": "OUT-SL1942-1974-1976-REGIONAL-SEAS-MEDITERRANEAN-INSTITUTIONAL-ROUTE", "title": "区域海计划与地中海行动计划的早期制度路线", "year": "1974–1976", "summary": "参与将地中海跨境污染问题转为沿岸国共同参与的区域合作与条约路径。", "mReason": "UNEP正文明确Tolba与同事参与1975年条约路径决定，并把MAP/Barcelona体系定位为Regional Seas基础，足以新增M5.2的制度模板成果族。该值覆盖早期组织和路线选择，不按后续覆盖国家数或污染改善抬分。", "aReason": "Tolba 0.16；海洋科学与制度前史0.16；UNEP/MAP团队0.20；沿岸国谈判者0.25；科学评估团队0.09；机构0.08；未解析0.06。", "sources": [ { "label": "联合国环境署：区域海计划历史", "url": "https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/how-world-helping-safeguard-its-oceans-and-seas" } ], "missing": "尚缺1974至1976年MAP会议记录和起草链，不能判断Tolba对方案文本、预算与具体机构设计的更高个人份额。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "只计1974至1976年Regional Seas/MAP早期形成中，Tolba与UNEP同事选择沿岸国条约路径和组织地中海区域合作的残余；Barcelona Convention文本、国家采纳、18个区域体系扩展、后续协议和污染改善均排除。", "M": "5.2", "budget": [ { "actor": "穆斯塔法·托尔巴", "actorId": "SL-1942", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.16" }, { "actor": "既有海洋科学与国际合作制度", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::UN-PREDECESSOR-POOL", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.16" }, { "actor": "UNEP区域海与地中海行动计划团队", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::UNEP-REGIONAL-SEAS-AND-MAP-STAFF", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.2" }, { "actor": "地中海沿岸国及欧洲共同体谈判代表", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::MEDITERRANEAN-COASTAL-STATE-DELEGATIONS-AND-NEGOTIATORS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.25" }, { "actor": "海洋科学与污染评估团队", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::MARINE-SCIENTISTS-AND-POLLUTION-ASSESSMENT-TEAMS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.09" }, { "actor": "联合国环境署及地中海行动计划", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::UNEP-AND-UNEP-MAP", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.08" }, { "actor": "待核实的早期方案与组织贡献", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::UNRESOLVED-REGIONAL-SEAS-EARLY-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.06" } ], "share": "0.16", "exactLight": "63.53714728855956012324036881404032695802832596758087149844546368963597661911328625184292985718037765", "light": "63.537147", "standaloneScore": "3.62", "lightSharePercent": "24.7197" }, { "id": "OUT-SL1942-1989-GOVERNMENT-AGENCY-NGO-CONSULTATION-SERVICE", "title": "1989年政府、机构与非政府组织意见征集和会议筹备", "year": "1989", "summary": "1989年，托尔巴为下一次联合国环境会议筹备征求政府、机构和非政府组织意见。它是有界的召集与程序服务；会议议程、决定、资金和后续项目仍属于参与者、UNEP团队和机构。", "mReason": "来源提供具体的1989年征询动作，足以估一个有限制度服务M4.5；其范围窄于蒙特利尔妥协文本，不能从17年任期或职位本身抬分。", "aReason": "Tolba 0.23；秘书处团队0.24；参与政府/机构/NGO 0.25；制度前史0.12；UNEP 0.10；未解析0.06。", "sources": [ { "label": "联合国数字图书馆：UNEP《The First 40 Years》", "url": "https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/756909/files/UNEP_the_1st_40_years.pdf" }, { "label": "联合国环境规划署", "url": "https://www.unep.org/unep-50-leaders-through-years" } ], "missing": "需1989年咨询任务书、意见汇编和会议材料确认具体终态及个人决策范围。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "只计UNEP叙事资料明确记载的1989年跨政府、机构与NGO意见征集及后续环境会议筹备服务；不把1975—1992整个执行主任任期、会议最终决议、各国政策或全球环境改善并入。", "M": "4.5", "budget": [ { "actor": "穆斯塔法·托尔巴", "actorId": "SL-1942", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.23" }, { "actor": "UNEP秘书处工作人员与会议团队", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::UNEP-SECRETARIAT-STAFF-AND-CONFERENCE-TEAM", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.24" }, { "actor": "参与的政府、机构与非政府组织", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::PARTICIPATING-GOVERNMENTS-AGENCIES-AND-NGOS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.25" }, { "actor": "国际环境会议与外交召集前驱", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::INTERNATIONAL-ENVIRONMENTAL-CONVENING-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.12" }, { "actor": "联合国环境署", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::UNEP", "type": "INSTITUTION", "share": "0.1" }, { "actor": "1989年意见征集与会议筹备分工待核部分", "actorId": "MOSTAFA-TOLBA::UNRESOLVED-1989-CONSULTATION-ATTRIBUTION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.06" } ], "share": "0.23", "exactLight": "40.67042643089522442818468748943175142892318210725187323427210662385494327540835751270690918341014956", "light": "40.670426", "standaloneScore": "3.24", "lightSharePercent": "15.8232" } ], "exactTotalLight": "257.0307022116909907806545275749557133508539735681939118955131220517757409976435788152923585217268384", "totalLight": "257.030702", "exactScore": "4.823342768576196140914778117984180912339262393031396226051518107224185489879170063106692605167725560", "displayScore": "4.82", "provisionalCount": 4, "provenance": { "releaseId": "research-200-20260914", "baselineLedgerSha256": "8bdd406b3e20ae22357644499e622922c670ff11010df0478c70c23b38902108", "c24DeltaSha256": "b0b96144d1d3397e54a61c3d706ff2da5920fe7617e3bef50407149cb97d9d62", "generatorSha256": "25de659e9852503508e7c27d8a31773b8da5d6310531b1e3699d18cc94319929" }, "priorScopeNote": "4项已列贡献的研究估分，含4项暂估。账本覆盖有限的主要成果，尚未穷尽生涯。M与归功份额是可修订的评估判断；未覆盖经历和负面影响不按零处理。", "rank": 172 }