{ "personId": "syukuro-manabe", "uid": "SL-0103", "name": "真锅淑郎", "version": "V2研究贡献账", "updatedAt": "2026-09-15", "formula": { "q": "Q = 10^(M/2) − 1", "light": "Lᵢ = aᵢ × Qᵢ", "total": "L = Σ Lᵢ", "score": "S = 2 × log₁₀(1 + L)" }, "scopeNote": "本轮当前已列5项有限研究账；M与归功份额为可修订判断。未覆盖内容和未核清的负面作用不按零处理，具体缺口见逐项说明。", "exclusions": [ { "id": "manabe-gap-1", "title": "1980年代以后全部自然变率、古气候与耦合模型论文", "reason": "当前有限召回只闭合上述两项后期独立终态；其余书目尚未逐项界定新增价值和合作者分工。" }, { "id": "manabe-gap-2", "title": "GFDL与Princeton任职、机构领导和教学服务", "reason": "机构背景和职位不自动产生独立服务M；需具体课程、组织措施或交付证据。" }, { "id": "manabe-gap-3", "title": "IPCC、气候政策、公众认知与全部现代预测", "reason": "后继评估、政策和模型属于多人制度成果，现有来源不支持归入Manabe个人成果。" }, { "id": "manabe-gap-4", "title": "诺贝尔奖", "reason": "奖项仅作检索入口和讲演来源，不是独立文明成果，也不用于抬高M或a。" } ], "items": [ { "id": "OUT-SL0103-1964-1967-RADIATIVE-CONVECTIVE-CO2-WATER-VAPOR", "title": "辐射—对流平衡模型与CO2、水汽反馈实验", "year": "1964–1967", "summary": "把辐射过程、对流调整与相对湿度假设组织为可计算平衡模型，并以CO2浓度及水汽反馈反事实显示垂直温度响应。", "mReason": "M6.3用于能够重构气候问题表达与实验方式的基础数值方法：它不只是一次曲线拟合，而是把大气物理过程转成可复用的CO2和反馈反事实框架。低于信息论M7等更广的一般理论，因为对象仍是一维平衡气候柱且主要社会下游排除。", "aReason": "Manabe 0.47、Wetherald 0.22；大气物理前史0.12；GFDL编程/计算与研究支持0.10；早期比较和传播0.04；具体分工未解析0.05。份额是责任判断，不由诺奖或作者顺序自动产生。", "sources": [ { "label": "诺贝尔奖讲座", "url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2021/11/manabe-lecture.pdf" }, { "label": "Princeton论文目录", "url": "https://manabe.scholar.princeton.edu/pubs" } ], "missing": "需1964与1967论文全文核模型方程、假设和实验边界。；需同期材料细分Manabe、Wetherald及GFDL程序/计算团队的具体角色。；后续观测验证范围尚未在本点闭合，不影响暂估但限制其作为精密锚。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "中1960年代一维辐射—对流柱模型、1964对流调整方法及1967不同CO2浓度和有无水汽反馈的温度剖面实验。只计垂直大气—地表平衡、CO2响应与水汽反馈的基础数值方法；三维GCM、海气耦合、全部现代气候敏感度估计、政策与IPCC结论排除。", "M": "6.3", "budget": [ { "actor": "真锅淑郎", "actorId": "SL-0103", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.47" }, { "actor": "Richard Wetherald（大气模型与数值实验）", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:RICHARD-WETHERALD", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.22" }, { "actor": "辐射传输、对流与大气物理前驱", "actorId": "MANABE::RADIATIVE-TRANSFER-CONVECTION-AND-ATMOSPHERIC-PHYSICS-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.12" }, { "actor": "GFDL程序、计算与研究支持", "actorId": "MANABE::GFDL-PROGRAMMING-COMPUTING-AND-RESEARCH-SUPPORT", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.1" }, { "actor": "早期观测比较与科学传播", "actorId": "MANABE::EARLY-OBSERVATIONAL-COMPARISON-AND-SCIENTIFIC-TRANSMISSION", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.04" }, { "actor": "1964—1967年分工待细分", "actorId": "MANABE::UNRESOLVED-1964-1967-ROLE-ALLOCATION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.05" } ], "share": "0.47", "exactLight": "663.4226459726945220131356960472132370011665905475962001286252230354371662264016845543312444635192775", "light": "663.422646", "standaloneScore": "5.64", "lightSharePercent": "35.5148" }, { "id": "OUT-SL0103-1965-1975-GLOBAL-ATMOSPHERIC-GCM-CO2-EXPERIMENT", "title": "全球大气环流—水文模型与三维CO2加倍实验链", "year": "1965–1975", "summary": "把动力学、辐射、垂直输送和水文循环整合为全球三维气候模型，并在成熟链中把CO2加倍转成空间分布和环流响应实验。", "mReason": "M6.5反映已交付的全球气候数值实验平台及其关键CO2反事实，范围宽于单一模型论文和Pearl Street式局地基础设施，但仍低于一般信息理论M7。把1965系统与1975实验合链，避免同一GCM底座以‘模型’和‘应用’重复发光。", "aReason": "Manabe 0.32；Smagorinsky 0.19；Holloway 0.07；Wetherald 0.12；GFDL动力、编程、计算和数据团队0.13；数值天气/GCM前史0.10；机构与早期验证0.03；未解析0.04。", "sources": [ { "label": "NOAA GFDL模型史", "url": "https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/brief-history-of-global-atmospheric-modeling-at-gfdl/" }, { "label": "Princeton论文目录", "url": "https://manabe.scholar.princeton.edu/pubs" } ], "missing": "需1965与1975原论文全文核实验配置、已交付结果和两阶段唯一增量。；需模型代码、技术报告或同期回顾细分Smagorinsky、Manabe、Holloway、Wetherald与程序团队角色。；需独立验证资料校准该系统在同期和后续气候研究中的实际使用范围。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1965全球大气原始方程、垂直通量、辐射与水文循环模型，连同1975在三维一般环流模型中比较CO2加倍的实验，作为从模型系统到关键气候强迫实验的一条成熟链。1975实验消费1965模型和1967辐射—对流物理，不另立完整模型M；海洋耦合、后续模式版本、全部全球变暖预测和机构成果排除。", "M": "6.5", "budget": [ { "actor": "真锅淑郎", "actorId": "SL-0103", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.32" }, { "actor": "Joseph Smagorinsky（研究计划与模型共同开创）", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:JOSEPH-SMAGORINSKY", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.19" }, { "actor": "J. 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}, { "id": "OUT-SL0103-1969-1991-COUPLED-OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE-TRANSIENT-CLIMATE", "title": "海气陆耦合模型与渐变CO2瞬变响应研究链", "year": "1969–1991", "summary": "把动态海洋与大气、陆地过程联结为长期气候实验系统，并用渐变CO2实验揭示海洋对响应速度和区域分布的作用。", "mReason": "M6.4用于海气陆跨介质耦合与可运行的瞬变实验链。独立增量在海洋反馈、响应时滞及空间分布；大气GCM底座的完整价值由前项消费。它是对象明确的气候系统方法，不领取全部现代地球系统预测；不因开发用时长而加分或扣分。", "aReason": "Manabe 0.26、Bryan 0.18、Stouffer 0.12、Spelman 0.08；GFDL团队0.15；既有大气/海洋模型与耦合前史0.12；比较传播0.04；未解析0.05。", "sources": [ { "label": "诺贝尔奖讲座", "url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2021/11/manabe-lecture.pdf" }, { "label": "1991年耦合模型瞬变响应论文", "url": "https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/sm9101.pdf" } ], "missing": "需1969与1991论文全文核耦合方法、现实化阶段和瞬变实验的独立新增。；需团队档案细分海洋代码、耦合、陆面、计算和实验分析职责。；通量修正、漂移、分辨率和现实海洋检验范围待统一复核。", "status": "缺证暂估", "overlapNote": "1969年Manabe—Bryan理想化海洋—大气—陆地耦合模型，至1991年含现实地理、季节变化并研究逐渐增减CO2时海洋对变化速率和空间分布影响的耦合实验链。大气GCM作为输入，不重复其完整M；每个中间版本、现代地球系统模型、所有海平面或政策结果排除。", "M": "6.4", "budget": [ { "actor": "真锅淑郎", "actorId": "SL-0103", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.26" }, { "actor": "Kirk Bryan（海洋模型与耦合）", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:KIRK-BRYAN", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.18" }, { "actor": "Ronald Stouffer（耦合实验与分析）", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:RONALD-STOUFFER", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.12" }, { "actor": "Melvin Spelman（瞬变实验）", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:MELVIN-SPELMAN", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.08" }, { "actor": "GFDL耦合模型、计算、数据与运行团队", "actorId": "MANABE::GFDL-COUPLED-MODEL-COMPUTING-DATA-AND-OPERATIONS-TEAMS", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.15" }, { "actor": "既有大气、海洋模型及耦合输入", "actorId": "MANABE::ATMOSPHERIC-OCEAN-MODEL-AND-COUPLING-PREHISTORY", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.12" }, { "actor": "观测比较与传播", "actorId": "MANABE::OBSERVATIONAL-COMPARISON-AND-TRANSMISSION", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.04" }, { "actor": "耦合模型分工待细分", "actorId": "MANABE::UNRESOLVED-COUPLED-MODEL-ROLE-ALLOCATION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.05" } ], "share": "0.26", "exactLight": 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"share": "0.35" }, { "actor": "Ronald Stouffer（耦合实验与分析）", "actorId": "EXT-NAME:RONALD-STOUFFER", "type": "PERSON", "share": "0.35" }, { "actor": "已计耦合平台输入", "actorId": "MANABE::COUPLED-MODEL-SYSTEM-CONSUMED-INPUT", "type": "PREDECESSOR_POOL", "share": "0.12" }, { "actor": "GFDL计算、数据与研究支持", "actorId": "MANABE::GFDL-COMPUTING-DATA-AND-RESEARCH-SUPPORT", "type": "TEAM", "share": "0.08" }, { "actor": "多稳定态研究的原始输入待解析", "actorId": "MANABE::UNRESOLVED-1988-EXPERIMENT-INPUT", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.04" }, { "actor": "1988年分工待细分", "actorId": "MANABE::UNRESOLVED-1988-ROLE-ALLOCATION", "type": "UNALLOCATED", "share": "0.06" } ], "share": "0.35", "exactLight": "138.9875096937240377695883067807132152206869630540831564028494518210786988543103136759064090625820761", "light": "138.987510", "standaloneScore": "4.29", "lightSharePercent": "7.4404" }, { "id": "OUT-SL0103-1985-ICE-SHEET-PALEOCLIMATE-GCM-EXPERIMENT", "title": "大陆冰盖对冰期气候影响的数值实验", "year": "1985", "summary": 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