Kiyoo Mogi

Record year1958

summaryBuried pressure-source model of volcanic surface deformation. The completed outcome of the 1958 original paper.

M rationaleGSJ verifies the 1958 original paper, and a 1971 peer paper explicitly states that its model explains Sakurajima/Hawaii and is an important perspective on volcanic mechanisms; take M6.0 for a highly reusable scientific model.

attribution rationaleMogi 0.40, Yamakawa 0.14, geodetic team 0.17, prior work 0.15, University of Tokyo 0.06, unresolved 0.08.

overlap boundaryThe 1958 explanation of surface deformation around Sakurajima and Hawaii volcanoes using a small spherical inflation/deflation pressure source in an elastic half-space; it does not claim that real magma systems are all spherical, nor claim subsequent numerical volcanic models.

Evidence gapsThe original-paper derivation and observational residuals have not been checked page by page; shares for Yamakawa and producers of geodetic materials still require original citation tables.

Record year1963

summaryClassification of foreshock, aftershock, swarm, and large-earthquake spatiotemporal sequences. In 1963, it placed aftershocks, foreshocks, and swarms in discussion of a half-space fracture/stress model.

M rationaleUniversity of Tokyo, J-STAGE, and Tectonophysics abstracts support continuous classification and mechanism work from 1963 to 1990; take M5.8 for phenomenon classification and a fault-heterogeneity hypothesis.

attribution rationaleMogi 0.43, observation-catalogue team 0.19, prior work 0.20, institution 0.06, peer testing 0.04, unresolved 0.08.

overlap boundaryA single family of sequence classification: discussion of foreshocks/aftershocks/swarms under a 1963 fracture model, sequential coverage of large-earthquake aftershock zones in 1968, and the 1990 A/B/C sequence–seafloor-topography explanation; it does not duplicate M by paper or type, nor serve as a global short-term prediction rule.

Evidence gapsThe full 1963 model, 1968 sample selection, and external validation of the 1990 classification have not been systematically checked.

Record year1966

summaryAnalysis of regional variation in earthquake magnitude–frequency parameters. Studies regional variation using the Gutenberg–Richter and Ishimoto–Iida relations as baselines.

M rationaleThe beginning of the 1967 original text explicitly studies regional variation using existing laws as a baseline, and the 1966 abstract lists b/m/β comparisons across four regions; take M5.4 for independent statistical diagnosis.

attribution rationaleMogi 0.42, network catalogue 0.20, prior work 0.23, institution 0.06, unresolved 0.09.

overlap boundaryComparison of magnitude–frequency, amplitude–frequency, and intensity–frequency parameters across regions in 1966–1967; counts only statistical analysis of regional differences, not the Gutenberg–Richter law or the full value of subsequent b-value monitoring.

Evidence gapsCatalogue completeness thresholds, statistical uncertainty, and cross-regional comparability need checking.

Record year1969

summaryTokai long-term risk judgment and critique of the earthquake-prediction system. Project phases from 1965, accumulated observations, and no successful prediction as of 1993.

M rationaleA 1995 review explicitly states there were no successful predictions, and a 2004 paper recalls the 1969 proposition and warns against binary forecasts; M5.6 assesses public, falsifiable risk knowledge and critique revealing methodological limits, without incorporating the net effects of monitoring institutions or policy thereby produced.

attribution rationaleMogi 0.31, prediction/monitoring team 0.25, Coordinating Committee 0.11, government institutions 0.10, prior work 0.12, unresolved 0.11.

overlap boundaryThe 1969 long-term Tokai regional-risk proposition, the 1995 evidence review that Japan’s prediction program had “no successful cases,” and the 2004 epistemic critique of black-and-white predictions; M counts only reviewable risk analysis and self-limiting texts, not laws, monitoring expenditure, prediction accuracy, or disaster outcomes.

Evidence gapsThe original 1969 paper/report and committee meeting records have not been read; long-term calibration of the risk judgment and policy costs lack a systematic counterfactual.